The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods, including many with military applications, and American consumers rely on moderately priced Chinese-made imports for everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. Professor Clinton Fernandesis a former intelligence officer in the Australian military and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. Australians could wake up one morning to the news that we are at war with China. "They would probably inflict a lot of damage on Chinese targets, but they would suffer very serious losses in the process. Are bills set to rise? Satellite image of Chinese vessels in the Whitsun Reef in a disputed zone, March 23, 2021. Credit:Maxar Technologies via AP. "The irrational elements thus make direct large-scale confrontation between two nuclear powers very dangerous. "In the past, when I was working in government, we sometimes offered ministers some indication of the possible cost in lives if things went badly in the kind of lower-level commitments that we made in the 1990s. "Nor can it rely on the US for resupply by sea once a conflict begins. "It depends. "China does have the mass to sustain a war of attrition over a long period as it did, and has continued to do, in Korea and in Vietnam for that matter.". Admiral Chris Barrie says that with all the "overblown rhetoric" about the possibility of war against China he thinks there is a danger of forgetting that war should only ever be taken as the last means of resolving insurmountable differences between nation states. Only a decade ago, the US would have easily dominated the Chinese military in almost any scenario, says Australian National University Professor Stephan Fruehling. Chinas airfields, naval ports and missile bases are all nearby. These operations would most likely be accompanied by cyber offensives to disrupt electricity, gas, water, transport, health care and other public services. And what would such a fight look like? Earlier this month, the United States Air Force staged a demonstration involving four heavily armed F-16 fighters. Yet the war in Ukraine is relatively small-scale compared with the likely demands of a major war in the Indo-Pacific. The Australian Imperial Force (AIF) was of marginal utility. Credit:AP. We Asked an Expert to Imagine a U.S.-China War. We Wish We Hadn't. "It would suffer high attrition and its military modernisation and even its one-party Communist rule would be threatened. There is a pathway to a future through peaceful dialogue, but its a hard path, and it needs to be worked.. "This looks like another reason for statesmanship in averting this possibility.". "As I see the decision for the invasion of Iraq I think it was made by the Prime Minister. These waterways could be used to bottle up Chinese forces. Some strategists even use an east-facing map with China at the bottom to show China as being encircled and needing to break out.. It may be possible for the US to operate from bases in northern Australia, though whether overflight rights would be granted by Indonesia is unlikely. Wherever they start, they finish only when one side decides to give up. Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. US fighters can operate out of Guam with adequate air-to-air refuelling support, but the round-trip transit time for a sortie is about six hours.". "The scenario of a Chinese attack on Taiwan is often considered the catalyst but even in this case the reasons for, and management of, the breakdown in China-Taiwan relations in the lead up would be critical. "For Australia the conflict would be devastating whether we joined the fighting or not. "At the time what I could see was the possibility that our intelligence had uncovered the spectre of WMD in Iraq. But which one would have military superiority in outright conflict? Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. That is massive! Vietnam and Iraq were illegal wars, with the US Administration(s) lying to their citizens and their allies about the strategic necessity and the morality of the use of armed force. Chinas leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwans leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion, Professor Fernandes says. The Peoples Liberation Army is capable of substantially subduing the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. Hugh White says a war between the US and China over Taiwan would "probably be the biggest and most disruptive war the world has seen since 1945". "The Kadena air base is 450 nautical miles away from Taiwan and threatened by Chinese surface-to-surface missiles. War over Taiwan would be disastrous, Australias chief of defence General Angus Campbell told a recent gathering. . Admiral Chris Barriemakes the point that its possible the impact on Australia of any war with China could be greater than any other participant because of Australias low population. A rise in tensions between China and Taiwan has raised the prospect of a world war in which Australia will be embroiled.. A Chinese invasion of the island is inevitable within five or six years . But Chinas been preparing to take and hold Taiwan by force for decades. China vs Australia | Comparison military strength - ArmedForces "That's what General Douglas Macarthur found in 1942. I am 68 and I am certain we will be at war with China within my lifetime. "Washington would expect Australia to contribute the full range of our air and naval forces to the maximum extent of our capability, including surface warships, submarines, F-18 and F-35 fighters, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft and tanker aircraft.. If war were to break out, China can be expected to use this to disrupt communications and spread fake news and other disinformation. 3-min read. Your Nuclear Attack Map for 2023 - mirasafety.com "America would then have to decide whether to go to war to break the blockade.". And the West may not be able to do much about it. Scenarios in which it would be right thing to do are few. A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. I think its clear that Australia would be better off staying out of it. And Taiwan sitting neatly between the two offers that opportunity. In this scenario, the US and its allies could respond by conducting airlifts to Taiwan. "Yet, as both [Opposition leader] Dutton and [Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence] Richard Marles have indicated in their various pronouncements on the matter, our default position is "all the way with the USA" wherever and whenever. "But it is an entirely different story with China. The Pentagons latest threat assessment found China has already achieved parity with or even exceeded the United States in several military modernisation areas, including ship building, land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles, and integrated air defence systems.. But its own submarines, combined with air and land launched missiles, could present an almost constant threat. But this will take time. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. Who has a better and stronger military, navy, air force, etc? "In their use of armed force, the American operational paradigm is largely unconcerned by its own casualty rates, so long as they are lower than those of their adversary. Washington and Beijing are locked in an intense strategic battle. "This is the critical question. The high-altitude balloon that drifted across the United States this month was seen by many Americans as a shocking Chinese breach of U.S. sovereignty. He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building capability and capacity "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". Chinas nuclear weapons are estimated to number between 200 and 350, a mere 5 per cent of the United States arsenal, but potentially enough to deter broader conflict through the prospect of mutual destruction. Then, it was mainly Germany, and from the 1930s Japan. "The military centre of gravity is China's integrated air defence system (IADS) in the south. Dr. Babbage is the author of the forthcoming book The Next Major War: Can the U.S. and Its Allies Win Against China?. Beijing has already put its assets in place. It can impose costs on our forces. Part 2. "Along with military mobilisation China would need to prepare its citizens and economy for a protracted conflict. The leaders of both Ukraine and Russia are expected to meet with China's president in the near future. The Chinese government last week released a 12-point plan it devised to bring about an end to . It now overlaps the ancestral territory of Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Borneo and India. Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst with ASPI's Defence, Strategy and National Security Program, told Daily Mail Australia it is increasingly likely President Xi Jinping will order Chinese forces. "And oh, by the way, it's just going to get harder as we get further into the . It also allows the US to try to promote the notion it is not"an American war". "Given the size of the Australia's forces and the logistic constraints on the US forces, a war against China would be a very hard war to fight. "When I was born in 1945 the world population stood at about 2.7 billion people. Performers dressed as the military celebrated Chinas military might on Monday nights gala in Beijing to celebrate the Chinese Communist Partys centenary. Should US tensions with China flare into a war there is no question that these days Washington would put enormous pressure on Albanese, or any future leader, to join them in that conflict. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.". Who would win in a hypothetical battle between China and Japan? Of all the uncertainty and conflict in the world at the moment, for Australians this surely is one of the most important discussions we must have. "A cross-strait Invasion would involve a shaping phase to achieve air, land, sea, and cyber superiority. The United States might be forced to confront the shocking realization that the industrial muscle instrumental in victories like that in World War II President Franklin Roosevelts concept of America as the arsenal of democracy has withered and been surpassed by China. Mr. Xi, who likes to say that the East is rising while the West is declining, evidently feels that Americas greatest weakness is on its home front. Hopefully Australian statesmen would have played a significant role in the lead up to a breakdown in cross straits relations.". Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. Certainly not in the six-to-eight minutes it could take a DF-11 A rocket to cross the 130 kilometre-wide Taiwan Strait to its target. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. The US military has been racking up decades of in-the-field experience, most recently with deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq and the Middle East. With China's rise and democracy's decline, what will the global order look like in 2050? This means any idea of sustained operations within the Pacific-spanning reach of Chinas ballistic and cruise missiles is likely optimistic. "Specifically, China would probably favour four principal avenues for marginalising or defeating Australia. Hugh White, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, has warned about the serious consequences that could arise from not adequately addressing tensions. Thinking of scale I am reminded that In 1944 the US alone out-produced the rest of the world combined in all war stores before the wars ended in 1945. But it is already outnumbered. All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that its possible to have. March 11, 2021 Ryan Morgan Last fall, the U.S. Air Force played out a war scenario with China, in which China begins its attack by deploying a biological weapon throughout the Indo-Pacific region. "A China-US war over Taiwan would begin as an air-sea war, with China seeking to impose punitive costs on the US Navy and such US Air Force units as were able to operate. Over the past two decades, China has built formidable political warfare and cyber warfare capabilities designed to penetrate, manipulate and disrupt the United States and allied governments, media organizations, businesses and civil society. Army Leader Warns About Potential Land War with China The almost daily probes of Taiwans air defences would suddenly turn serious. The US has launched 615 satellites into space in the last three years, compared to 168 by China, according to Lowy. "If they think the blockade is failing, they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted or they might escalate to attacking US forces supporting Taiwan. "It may be argued that ANZUS would inevitably push Australia to war but we should not be lazy in coming [to] that conclusion. He spent the bulk. "In the history of the 20th century, it took two world wars to deal with the difficult policy question of dealing with rising powers prepared to challenge the statusquo. Meia Nouwens from the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Beijing was intent on achieving primacy in the waters that surround China. Ifthey think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. While the US remains ahead in space for now, Davis says how long US dominance lasts is not clear. Which is why Dr Davis argues any conflict would likely focus on two strategic waterways the Bashi Channel and Miyako Strait that guard the China Seas. But which one would have military superiority in outright conflict? "The question requires urgent, high-profile debate in parliament and among the wider public. US v China war: If conflict broke out, who would win? But there's also bad news ahead. "It is possible that the impact on Australia could be greater than any other assailant because of our low population. "China would not seek to deploy land forces to the US (nor Australia for that matter). If the United States cannot control the air, it cannot win either at land or at sea. For the US, the bigger the coalition of countries joining it in any war, the better. The general sense among Western European publics is that the current situation in Ukraine is stalemate, rather than one side having an advantage. He says Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology:to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own". The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land. "The forces are relatively evenly matched, because USadvantages in technology are balanced by China's advantages in geography fighting close to home. But, his hawkish new boss, Defence Minister Peter Dutton, says war with China should not be discounted. "This decision over the possibility of war with China could be made more difficult because of ANZUS. I am sure that survivors of war may have a more considered view. Its military planners already expect these to be overwhelmed by missiles in the opening hours of any conflict. These are all Cold War allies of the US, but they have not had to think about war in the region since the 1970s. The United States cannot win a war against China over Taiwan, four Australian defense experts have said in a series of interviews conducted by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Allan Behm, who is now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10years, the best one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/china-us-war-what-would-conflict-look-like-taiwan/101998772, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article. In 1947 with setting up of the United Nations, after the catastrophes of both world wars and the more limited wars in the intervening years, we tried to build a system of managing international relationships without the recourse to war. Our economy would be paralysed as all trade with China and other major East Asian partners would stop dead and may not resume for a long time. One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. At home, a concerted effort must be made to find ways to better protect U.S. traditional and social media against Chinese disinformation. Taiwan cannot be resupplied by land. There are always a few possibilities that the right thing to do is to go to war irrespective of the expectation that we could 'win' whatever that means. What would war with China look like for Australia? Part 1 Would Japan? It may turn out to be childs play compared with the havoc China could wreak on the American homeland in a war. The last time Chinese troops saw direct action was 1979 when China launched a costly month-long war against Vietnam to teach it a lesson in retaliation for Hanois actions in south-east Asia. The People's Liberation Army is the military arm of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, which oversees the PLA through its Central . There are less quantifiable aspects as well. This week, China suspended the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue a diplomatic mechanism for trade talksand accused Australia of "disrupt [ing] the normal exchanges and cooperation . One year on: European and American attitudes to the war in Ukraine I am convinced that the challenges facing the United States are serious, and its citizens need to become better aware of them. These threats from nature pose potentially disastrous outcomes that look inevitable; we have yet to find the statesmen to deal effectively with them. Protests break out in Iran as more schoolgirls hospitalised after suspected poisoning. Even with robotic flying tanker support, these enormous ships must operate dangerously close to an enemy before their F-18 Super Hornets and F-35B&C Lightnings are of any use. It means mine laying by air and naval units, particularly submarines, blockading ports, inspecting maritime traffic including commercial shipping, intercepting aircraft, and attacking adversary military forces as necessary. "They have publicly been very clear about not only . As Australia enjoys all the benefits of a free and open society in a stable and functioning democracy, our principles and values must extend to supporting the survival of Taiwan.. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? In a matter of minutes, Beijings Rocket Force could cripple Taiwans military, infrastructure and ports. Part 1. And in a defensive war, China has the enormous advantage of mass, as Stalin demonstrated after the end of 1942.". And that makes the kind of island-hopping campaign used by the US to take back the Pacific from Japan in World War II no longer feasible. Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. Also, we do not have the equivalent of the Chilcott report to illuminate the story. Some wouldn't survive. Surrounded: Disturbing report from Ukraine. Those are easy targets. Destroy the offensive capability of the PLAN and People . Should a war break out around the South China Sea, the US would be under pressure to quickly neutralise the roughly 10 man-made islands China has created (seen as unsinkable aircraft carriers) to use as military bases. In the recent parliamentary inquiry into war powers reform, the Department of Defence said it didn't think parliament should have authority to decide our involvement because that 'could undermine the confidence of our international partners as a reliable and timely security partner'. This article was originally published by Radio Free Asia and is reprinted with permission. Why are Australian officials hinting at war with China? | CNN "For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.. Chinas new Type-055 destroyers can carry 112 large missiles. Some 64 percent of Australians viewed a potential military conflict between the U.S. and China as a "critical threat" to Australia's national interests, behind Russia's foreign policy (68 percent . Our biggest customer is now also viewed as our biggest threat andChina's muscle-flexing around Taiwan last week only strengthened the view that a war involving Taiwan is a genuine possibility. "I worry when politicians start to think it is acceptable to use the media to make threats about war. What would all the other countries in Asia, such as South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia do? Maybe, that explained why President Bush and Prime Minister Howard, from the right of politics, and Mr Blair from the left of politics, shared the view about the need for the invasion.". "The bases in South Korea and Japan may not be available, and Guam may also be unavailable. Were sorry, this feature is currently unavailable. President Xi Jinping of China has said unifying Taiwan with mainland China must be achieved. His Communist Party regime has become sufficiently strong militarily, economically and industrially to take Taiwan and directly challenge the United States for regional supremacy. "The joint facility at Pine Gap would be a very important, indeed crucial, element in US intelligence gathering and in Command and Control. If Australia was dragged into a war with China, what would it look like? Supply chains of some critical goods and services need to be reconfigured to shift production to the United States or allied nations, and the United States must pursue a longer-term strategic drive to restore its dominance in global manufacturing. He believes a blockade of Taiwan by China is more likely than a cross-strait invasion. And that would leave Australias critical fuel supply links to Singapore desperately exposed. 'Nuclear': Grim prediction for what war with China would look like - Yahoo!